GOLD ! Norair Yeretsian
September 13, 2010 Leave a comment
The Gold Obsession : Real or Hype ?
It has been around for thousands of years.
” We have gold because we cannot trust Governments.” said President Herbert Hoover (1933) .
Was President Nixon right to end the Gold standard (1971) ?
Did the American and world economies just out grow the restrictive Gold standard ?
” They wonder much to hear that gold, which in itself is so useless a thing,
should be everywhere so much esteemed, that even men for whom it was made,
and by whom it has its value, should yet be thought of less value than it is. “
Sir Thomas More (1478-1535) Utopia of Jewels and Wealth.
A obessive yellow piece of metal called : Gold. Who says it has any value ?
What is the value of Gold and why should I care ?
I do not like Gold, neither its look or its concept of a storage of wealth.
We , Man say it is so — valuable, a treasure, something we need to show we are wealthy.
The powers that were – said it was an item of worth. So men would seek it out and fight for it.
” Who has gold has a treasure [that] even helps souls to paradise.”
Even religious groups joined in the chorus for Gold.
Gold is not going to save you.
If you are lazy, unproductive, unimaginative, lacking creativity, drive, will and determination , your fortune will never come.
Seeking Gold is an old idea, whose time has come and gone.
What is value but some intangible thing that most of us may agree upon ?
Fads have come and gone, but Gold has been consistent – people have desired it.
It is easy to move and in the old days played the role of a common international currency.
War breaks out, take your gold and run !
A story was told about a hundred years ago about this supreme possession;
” a man who boarded a ship carrying his entire wealth in a large bag of gold coins.
A terrible storm came up a few days into the voyage and the alarm went off to abandon ship.
Strapping the bag around his waist, the man went up on deck, jumped overboard, and
promptly sank to the bottom of the sea.
Asks John Ruskin: ” Now, as he was sinking, had he the gold? Or had the gold him ? “
This is a new age, so maybe we are beyond it, get over it and around it.
It was political and economics mixed in, as we moved to this new age.
New Rules and not the status quo, those that have the Gold ruled.
On the investment side was Gold a good investment ?
Valued at $ 35 / ounce in 1970 , by January 1980 to$ 634 then rising to $ 850 record high January 21 .
By 1985 the value/price was $300/ounce, the stock market crash of 1987 caused a bump to $ 486.
” At the end of 1997, gold broke below $300. It had fallen by more than 60 percent in the course of less than eight years.”
( The Power of Gold : Peter Bernstein, 2000 )
As of this morning $1247 Canadian / ounce and chatter that it May be going up to $ 1500 ( Sept/2010).
Is this a good investment? What about the volatility over the years ?
Gold is supposed to be a store for wealth and a hedge against inflation ?
However the proof is not in the numbers over the years, too many bumps.
Gold does not pay dividends , No cash flow. So it is only speculative .
So you have to be a good market timer to make money.
Not just understanding the local market but one who understands and follows the global market place.
As well as making all the right calls on gold, in a complex system of currencies,governments
and geo-politics and the world of speculators. This is not the play ground for the small investor to consider.
Exercise caution !
What are your thoughts about Gold , does it command your attention ?
Let’s discuss it versus other investment opportunities ,
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