GOLD ! Norair Yeretsian

The Gold Obsession : Real or Hype ?

It has been around for thousands of years.

” We have gold because we cannot trust Governments.” said President Herbert Hoover (1933) .

Was President Nixon right to end the Gold standard (1971) ?

Did the American and world economies just out grow the restrictive Gold standard ?

” They wonder much to hear that gold, which in itself is so useless a thing,
should be everywhere so much esteemed, that even men for whom it was made,
and by whom it has its value, should yet be thought of less value than it is. “
Sir Thomas More (1478-1535) Utopia of Jewels and Wealth.

A obessive yellow piece of metal called : Gold.  Who says it has any value ?

What is the value of  Gold and why should I care ?

I do not like Gold, neither its look or its concept of a storage of wealth.

We , Man say it is so — valuable, a treasure, something we need to show we are wealthy.
The powers that were – said it was an item of  worth. So men would seek it out and fight for it.

” Who has gold has a treasure [that] even helps souls to paradise.” 

 Even religious groups joined in the chorus for Gold.

Gold is not going to save you.

If you are lazy, unproductive, unimaginative, lacking creativity, drive, will and determination , your fortune will never come.

Seeking Gold is an old idea, whose time has come and gone.

What is value but some intangible thing that most of us may agree upon ?

Fads have come and gone, but Gold has been consistent – people have desired it.

It is easy to move and in the old days played the role of a common international currency.

War breaks out, take your gold and run !

A story was told about a hundred years ago about this supreme possession;
” a man who boarded a ship carrying his entire wealth in a large bag of gold coins.
A terrible storm came up a few days into the voyage and the alarm went off  to abandon ship.
Strapping the bag around his waist, the man went up on deck, jumped overboard, and
promptly sank to the bottom of the sea.
Asks John Ruskin: ” Now, as he was sinking, had he the gold? Or had the gold him ? “

This is a new age, so maybe we are beyond it, get over it and around it.

 It was political and economics mixed in, as we moved to this new age.

New Rules and not the status quo, those that have the Gold ruled.

On the investment side was Gold a good investment ?

Valued at $ 35 / ounce in 1970 , by January 1980 to$ 634 then rising to $ 850 record high January 21 .

By 1985 the value/price was $300/ounce, the stock market crash of 1987 caused a bump to $ 486.

” At the end of 1997, gold broke below $300. It had fallen by more than 60 percent in the course of less than eight years.”

( The Power of Gold : Peter Bernstein, 2000 ) 

As of this morning $1247 Canadian / ounce and chatter that it May be going up to $ 1500 ( Sept/2010).

Is this a good investment?  What about the  volatility over the years ? 

Gold is supposed to be a store for wealth and a hedge against inflation ?

 However the proof is not in the numbers over the years, too many bumps.

Gold does not pay dividends , No cash flow. So it is only speculative .

So you have to be a good market timer to make money.

Not just understanding the local market but one who understands and follows the global market place.

As well as making all the right calls on gold, in a complex system of currencies,governments
and geo-politics and the world of speculators. This is not the play ground for the small investor to consider.
Exercise caution !

What are your thoughts about Gold , does it command your attention ?

Let’s discuss it versus other investment opportunities ,

 Join us : www.yinvestthinktank.blogspot.com

Twitter : EnvoyCapRealty

Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage     Toronto , Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndication — Investments

email :  capitalmoves@gmail.com

Blog: www.capitalmoves.blogspot.com

Nor Yeretsian   [ Facebook ]   (  September 13,2010 )

Fraud or Theft by any other name….. Norair Yeretsian

The Den of  Thieves is legendary  , however now we have high tech
villians and they can steal without us even being aware the act was done.

As technologies get more sophisticated and try to make our lives more
interesting and theoretically easier. It has also made the work of thieves
easier, more assets can be stolen faster and hidden away in places no one
can seem to find.

In real estate the problem seems to be identity theft on properties,
mortgage fraud and a host of other variations of theft by deception.
A lot of these activities it is suggested are committed by insiders of
the industry ; realtors,mortgage brokers,lawyers,etc…

What about Ponzi scams and schemes ?
Why do we keep falling for them, don’t we learn from history ?

In the National Post, on June 3/ 2010 page A8 there is another story about a
Convicted bank robber named in Ponzi scam : “… whose  alleged deceptions
as head of the ‘ Pathway-2-Prosperity ‘ investment scheme were previously
flagged in 2008 by North Dakota fraud investigators and in 2009 by the
Ontario Provincial Police, is now believed to be in hiding in the Philippines.
And if allegations filed last week by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in southern
Illinois are true,…controls a fraudulent fortune amassed from the savings of
40,000  individual victims in  Canada, all but two of the 50 U.S. states and
118 other countries around the world.

He is alleged to have used a Netherlands-hosted website and a shell company
in the Turks & Caicos Islands to funnel millions of dollars from would-be
investors into his personal bank accounts around the world, including the Philippines.
The classic Ponzi scheme , designed to reward a few early investors with
substantial profits financed entirely by thousands of later investors–
almost all of whom lost everything.
The Pathway-2-Prosperity website that lured investors from six continents
promised annual returns of more than 500 % on initial payments that
ranged from a few hundred to tens of thousands of dollars. “

Recommendation to Buyers and everyone :

Buyer Beware !  Self defense …

But  How ?

Education, educate yourself how business and investments work.

Read books about the great investors and business people in Europe and North America.

Understand there is Risk in everything and in all investments,

and there is a chance ( a real chance ) you could lose it all .

Be prepared and invest accordingly.

Don’t give all your money to one investment or one promotor/ asset manager.

Stay interested in your investments and where your money is .

Understand how it is making more money for you, it should be clear.

Expect dividends or periodic cash flow(s) coming your way

Ask questions lots of questions until your understand.

Due diligence , do your homework ! Trust , but verify !

If it doesn’t feel right do not do it ! Another opportunity will come along.

Don’t get fooled by overly optimistic yields in the future, even if they guarantee it .

No body knows the future .  Caveat Emptor !

Use licensed professionals who also carry the appropriate level of insurance.

Let’s continue the discuss below or on Twitter @ EnvoyCapRealty

nyeretsian@yahoo.com   June 4, 2010

What is it worth ? Norair Yeretsian

” Art is a lie that makes us realize the truth .” — Pablo Picasso

What is it worth ? We keep asking the worth, about everything around us.

Well according to some U.K. realtors when asked , they  estimated -

that Stonehenge if available for sale, would be worth —  $ 75 million ,

$600 million for Windsor Castle and

# 10 Downing Street ( Prime Minister’s residence ) about  $ 8 million .

Pablo Picasso’s Garcon a La pipe ( Boy with a Pipe) ( 1905) Rose period

attracted the highest price at an Art auction of $ 104.2 million and his

other painting of  his former mistress’s Portait Dora Maar au Chat (1941)

brought in the second highest price near $ 90 million. A new high price was

paid at public auction recently according to Sotheby’s, for a cast bronze Sculpture

by Alberto Giacometti  ( L’Homme qui marche I ; Walking Man I ) at  $104.3 million

holds the world record.

Bidding started at $ 19 million and was all over within 8 minutes for the record price.

How do you price these things ? Or is it just emotions running wild?

How do you price an NHL team? Well according to Forbes magazine

The Carolina Hurricanes would be worth about $177 million .

The Phoenix Coyotes, a team that Forbes say is worth $ 138 million .

Forbes national editor– Michael Ozanian said ” Despite playing in

a great building ( RBC Center), I believe he will only get about $ 85 million

for half the club. The folks in North Carolina really don’t care about hockey. “

And that could be the real difference , you need desire/ passion/ emotion –

demand for that limited , one of a kind item/ product / talent / property .

What is it worth ?

As much as someone is willing and able to pay for it.

” Worth ( Value) ” is a lie that makes us realize the truth. (2010)

Let’s discuss in on twitter @ EnvoyCapRealty

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 26, 2010

Capital Madly Getting off in all Directions Norair Yeretsian

” Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than
you and I can remain solvent .” John Maynard Keynes

This is one of the biggest challenges we investors face,
to be rational /analytical ,to have goals and targets and
have a planned /systemic approach. And then we are faced
with the irrationality of the market place as driven by the
irrational humans that invest in it.
If we then explore the irrationality of the investor in this
challenging market place ; chaos .

Irrational Buying versus Rational Buying , what’s your bet ?

Everyone has a motivation, some rational,others irrational.

Most investors are motivated by making money :
cash flow and capital appreciation .
If you can’t see how to make money or calculate how
to make money in an opportunity,
your not investing you are doing something else.

Follow the money and you will understand ,
I was told by a sophisticated investor.

Well I can follow the money if the investor is rational
and the investment is made rationally.
If  I  can connect all the dots the investment is logical
and rational at least on one level .

If you can not connect the dots and the investment calculations/analysis
does not seem to work or make any sense –
then there is something else happening (irrational behavior ).

Well  either the investment is  rational or irrational , it can’t be both .

You can calculate the yields and returns, measure and count the cashflow.

Rational equals logical, irrational equals  emotional .

What rational investing is easily understood.
It is following a logical, systemic approach that we can calculate.
We can see the motivation : return on the investment and return of the investment.
It is more tangible and less subjective ( future sale of the asset in 10 years ).

Behavioral Economist tell us that the average investors
are full of irrationalities :

1. Too self confident; ignoring luck.
They have an illusion of control by exaggerating both their skill and the importance of that skill.

2.They have an Optimistic Bias — too bold.

3. Risk Averse , overly timid.

4. Too scared / afraid of loss.

5. Quick to trade.

Who always makes the sensible financial choice ?

Daniel Kahneman (Princeton psychologist) said :

” Psychology has a story to tell about investing, and its different from the one economics tells.”

Average investors are full of irrationalities and inconsistencies, according to Behavioral finance.

Things get really scary when one thinks about irrational investors and
their approach to investing versus the rational investors:

and the idea or rather the confusion or miscalculations/ misunderstanding
of the market  ; and the famous quote

” The markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. “
And of course government(s) do not help, they seem to inflame the situation
or create concern when none seem to exist just to keep things interesting
and cash flowing through the economy.

Let’s continue the discussion : Twitter ; EnvoyCapRealty or
just leave a comment below

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 16, 2010