U.S. Farm Belt Real Estate Performing Well…Nor Yeretsian

America’s farmers are on sitting on very valuable resources, one of which is Natural Gas… as was presented this Sunday November 14 on 60 minutes. Twice the energy resources of Saudi Arabia Discovered in the U.S. says the CEO of Chesapeake Energy. 

Prices soared 9.6% for irrigated cropland, in the third quarter across the western swath of the Farm Belt amid booming demand for U.S. crops, according to a survey released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Survey says; Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado and northern New Mexico, found that farmland prices rose for the fourth consecutive quarter since a drop in the third quarter of 2009, which is when the livestock sector was contracting in face of the steep recession.

” The value of nonirrigated cropland in the region rose 6.4% compared with the 2009 third quarter, while ranchland values climbed 4.3%.

The rise in farmland prices is another sign that the U.S. farm economy is pulling out of the sharp recession far more robustly than the general economy, which is burdened by a stubbornly high unemployment rate and weak real-estate values. The U.S. Agriculture Department estimates that U.S. net farm income, a rough measure of profitability, is jumping 24% this year to $77.1 billion.

While most demand for farmland is coming from farmers, there also is growing interest among nonfarm investors who are looking for hard assets with a higher rate of return, and as a potential hedge against future inflation. Rex Schrader, of Schrader Real Estate and Auction Co., based in Indiana, says more outside investors, including pension funds, are buying farmland. “They’re looking at agricultural land as a class of assets that they should have in their portfolio,” he says.

Interest in farmland as an investment is high because economists expect a planting boom next spring. Prices of several of the major U.S. crops have soared since July as prospects for U.S. agricultural exports brightened. The Black Sea drought that temporarily crippled Russia’s ability to export wheat is creating huge marketing opportunities for the U.S. wheat industry, which is expected to export 42% more bushels of wheat from this year’s harvest than last year.

At the same time, the weak U.S. dollar is making U.S. commodities look like a bargain to emerging and developing nations.

The U.S. is exporting a record amount of soybeans, thanks largely to the protein-hungry middle class within China, a country that will likely buy one-third of all soybeans just harvested in the U.S. The appetite of Chinese textile mills is so strong that U.S. cotton exports are expected to climb 31%, which could drain U.S. supplies by next summer to the lowest level since 1925, according to USDA projections.

The prices of cotton, corn, wheat, and soybeans are up, 119%, 49%, 39% and 35%, respectively, from a year ago.

Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern, said Friday that the broad price rally is signaling U.S. farmers to plant an additional 10 million acres, or 4% more than this year.

Some regulators have begun to wonder whether farm land prices are climbing too high, too fast. Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., posed the question in an October speech of whether an asset bubble is building in U.S. farmland, the value of which has climbed 58% since 2000 in inflation-adjusted terms, she said.

“While the credit structure underlying U.S. farmland does not appear to involve excessive leverage or inappropriate loan products, this is a situation that will continue to require close monitoring,” Ms. Bair said then.” [ WSJ , Lauren Etter and Scott Kilman ]

What a great category for patient money, investing in farmland. Own it , lease it or work it – the great versatility of  North American farmland.

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage       Toronto / Canada

Email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]      November 16,2010

Strong Canadian Dollar Helps or Hurts ? Norair Yeretsian

Well we had an advantage in attracting U.S. investors or home purchases up

here in Canada when our dollar was about $0.70 to their dollar.

 However with a stronger Canadian dollar now at Par ( $1 to $1)  and a U.S recession over the past 24 months many

 American corporation have been reducing their head counts up here in Canada and

retrenching their base in the U.S. it would appear. This adversely impacts our real estate on many levels.

 However the in-flow of investors and new Canadians from other parts of the world has not slowed down, thankfully.

 So the American impact has not been dramatically felt. At least not in Toronto, Canada.

A Strong Canadian dollar maybe nice if you are travelling outside the country or importing products.

But it Hurts our exports and hurts our manufacturers.

Canadian products become less competitive and we will lose sales internationally.

So as our dollar rises we lose whatever manufacturing jobs are left in the country.

Our commodities also become more expensive and less competitive – we could lose here as well.

The U.S. and China with their low currency positions win the global competitiveness game.

People around the world still like Toronto real estate – its solid .

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage       Toronto , Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndicate — Investments

Norair Yeretsian  , broker of record

Email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian  [ Facebook ]      November 15,2010

Get Rich Quick Schemes in Real Estate Nor Yeretsian

 Get Rich Quick Schemes are they worth the risk ?

Do you believe the market rumors circulating each day/week/month ?

And would you put your hard-earned taxed  money into these baseless/ wishful thinking schemes ?

Shouldn’t You or someone, do some home work on the proposal being offer you?

Have you considered both  sides of the investment, and not just the upside – but the risk of total loss? And can you deal with this?

The wishful thinking schemes in real estate which have appeared of late, pretend the investment opportunities yield  15% +  annually.

Now in and of itself this is a nice rate of return, 15% .

However the promoters are misleading the investor(s) with this attractive number.

The higher the yield the greater the risk – right?

Well the reason is that you don’t actually get this 15% annually, in fact the investment on a cashflow basis falls a little short.

It requires you the investor to feed it approximately $425 a month to break even.

The 15% is an average annual yield achieved when you the investor stay invested for the full 5 to 7 years.

At that time the property is sold at a good high price at the end and Well presto ! All the numbers work.

They work backwards.

That’s what the promoters do they work them backwards to achieve a nice inviting, attractive yield.

And it is the sale of the property , at the end at an estimated high price which makes the investment yield 15% annually on the average.

We could make it yield 16,17,18 % + or whatever number we want and still make it all work out.

 Whatever it will take for you to be interested in investing ( parting with your hard-earned money ).

Do your homework. Think about it.

Determine the reasonableness of the investment.

Understand How it really works and where the cashflow and yields are coming from.

Otherwise you will be making the promoter very rich, very quickly.It’s actually the promoter’s Quick Rich Scheme and not Yours.

And all you will have going is  hope and praying property values appreciate over these five to seven years, if you can hang on.

 

Use a licensed, experienced professional. Who is insured and has an Ethical Code of Conduct.

This is still not a guarantee against incompetence or theft , so buyer beware – ultimately.

 Do not invest more than you can afford to lose, keep it in perspective.

 Diversification also works against total loss.

Let’s discuss it at www.yinvestthinktank.blogspot.com

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage          Toronto , Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndicate — Investments 

Norair Yeretsian, broker of record

Email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian  [ Facebook ]    October 13,2010

Toronto Real Estate Overvalued ? Norair Yeretsian

The Economist magazines states real estate values in Toronto and Canada, are way overvalued by 23.9%.

You should expect a decline / a cooling, in your future real estate values –  is the suggestion.

An economist from CIBC World Markets, Warren Lovely estimates that real estate prices in Ontario are overvalued by about 11.6 % .

He says ” Ontario’s is one of the provincial economies downshifting from a better-than-expected 2010 to a more tepid growth pace for 2011.”

Housing market has been propping up the Ontario economy.

 However it will be the drag on it next year says Mr. Lovely. (Globe Real Estate 10/5/2010)

The Economist, has claimed that Canadian real estate is overvalued by 23.9%.

 ” The survey uses the current ratio of house prices to rent instead to estimate fair value.” ( Globe R.E. 10/5/2010)

The Key word in the above are  Estimate and Forecasts …

To use the metric of  rents to estimates of fair value, maybe a flawed comparison. We in Ontario have rent control on residential properties. Therefor the rents are artificially held low for the voters and tenants of the province and the City of Toronto. They are not a true market rent at this time.

The fundamentals are not discussed or reviewed in a credible way.

The real estate economy is usually a simple one of supply and demand.

Demand is driven by population ( demographics ) and job creation ( money + credit, in the hands of the population).

With Toronto having a net population inflow of 100,000 people a year into the Greater Toronto Area.

Steady employment ( unemployment at about 7.9% ). People are not losing their homes in major numbers to the mortgage lenders.

There is not an over built real estate sector in Toronto. There is no more land to build subdivision housing.

 All that can be built going forward are either custom in fill housing or multi-unit condo developments.

On the custom housing front , yes building continues however this is slow and very expensive.

 Slow – about one year to complete a house start to finish after building permit is obtained.

Very few , if any (none) speculation building is happening in this sector.

Builders are playing this very conservatively buyer in hand they build.

Buyers are usually hiring contractors as project managers to orchestrate the development of these custom-made high-end/ unique homes .

These purchasers usually have all their funds in place and have major equity into these projects.

So interest rates are not an issue for them , neither is the availability of credit.

The multi-unit condo units being mass-built. 

Are built being substantially pre-sold to purchasers (70-80%) .

 Therefor the financier(s) approve the development project.

Here again there is a Time delay to build and deliver the units to the buyers.

The Condo market maybe where there could be weakness.

The frontline sales representatives suggest that maybe as much as half the Buyers could be speculators.

These Buying speculators may be the first ones to try to walk away if values / prices start to slide.

Homes in Toronto are on solid ground.

The single detached family home in Toronto, Canada is a great investment – if you are a long term investor and user of this asset.

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Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndicate — Investments

Norair Yeretsian  , broker of record

Email :  capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]   November 8, 2010

America’s Housing Challenge, Any Solutions ? Norair Yeretsian

There is an old expression, you can skin a cat a thousand ways. Sorry to the cat lovers among us.

What we are saying is that there are usually many solutions to a problem.

Each will have their own unintended consequences, some may be happy other will not.

Some individuals will / may be hurt as we try to solve the Bigger problem of the economy of the Nation.

Below you will see one suggestion/ recommendation followed by another… if you have a bright idea and

 want to share it in the comment section feel free to do so…

 John Mulkey,”  makes some strong suggestions for ways to solve the current housing crisis. 

I don’t think this will solve the crisis but it definitely will help put it on the road to recovery.

Via John Mulkey, Housing Guru (TheHousingGuru.com):

With three years of struggle under our belts, are we ready to solve the housing crisis? Are we ready to accept a strategy that could help stabilize housing and begin to get the economy rolling again? Now that housing has become mired in yet another calamity (the the foreclosure scandal), are politicians, economists, pundits, and homeowners ready to take the medicine necessary to get our country back on track? While I’d like to think so, I’ve yet to see any positive action being taken.

The U.S. has thrown billions into the failed mortgage modification program, HAMP, the results of which have been pathetic. By the government’s own estimates we’ve made little progress in slowing the number of homeowners losing their homes, and in fact, are now facing a potential onslaught of 5 million additional foreclosures. Add in Foreclosure-Gate and it becomes obvious that we’re not only failing to make progress; we’re falling deeper into a hole in which housing could remain mired for years to come.

To ignore this problem is short-sighted at best; and to continue with the same failed “fixes” could allow the crisis to fester into a wound so severe that our very recovery could be in question. And while some may brush off my analysis as unnecessarily alarming, none have yet to offer alternative or less-costly solutions. The choice of many has been to be to just allow housing to crash and to pick up the pieces later. However, it’s now been three years, and we’re still crashing. Foreclosures are increasing; personal bankruptcies are increasing; and the nation has borrowed and spent billions that have failed to stabilize the economy.

Housing is the key to a recovery; it has always been so. The graph below shows just how far housing has fallen. As a percentage of GDP, residential investment is now at a record low spanning the past 60 years. Home sales and construction drive the engine that can lift us from this quagmire; without a housing recovery we may not add enough jobs to absorb the millions of unemployed for another decade. I don’t think we’re prepared to deal with the consequences of such malaise.

In order to restore housing it will be necessary to have PRINCIPAL WRITE-DOWNS, a solution I described in, “Punishing Foreclosure Victims Only Increases the Pain for all of us,” written earlier this year. At that time many objected to the idea, but the worsening market and economy has begun to make it more palatable to some; and whether or not we find the concept appealing, the issue must be addressed. Of course it’s complicated, and might require one more act of assistance from taxpayers; but doing nothing has already consumed billions and will consume billions more. Let’s put our money where it can have an impact and where it has the potential to produce a result from which we will all benefit.

Such a plan will require that banks absorb losses, that government provide some underwriting, and that homeowners commit to sharing future gains with their lender. The development of a workable plan would require compromise from all sides and would probably be best accomplished without forced government intervention. Creating such a plan would require bi-partisan support (if that’s possible) and should include the participation of Treasury as well as representatives of both the real estate and mortgage industries.

I see only two options. We can complain about the inherent unfairness of such a move, continuing to disparage those “irresponsible” borrowers who should have known better, or we can implement a strategy from which we will all ultimately benefit. Business as usual hasn’t worked; housing remains on a downward slide. Do we want to risk calamity? Or are we willing to learn from our mistakes and move ahead? Politicians won’t take the initiative unless forced to do so. Are we ready to solve the housing crisis?

A different approach to America’s housing crisis is to increase the demand for all these vacant homes and foreclosured homes.

How do you increase the demand ?

Increase the population.  Increase Immigration.

You have over built. There are no job creation ideas on the horizon. Growth will be moderate at best, so increase the population therefore increasing the demand. And the housing crisis could be resolved. Think about it .

And by the way , What happened to NAFTA ? 

Remember open broaders with Canada and Mexico with the U.S. The North American Free Trade Agreement ?

Bring NAFTA back !

Let’s talk about it, discuss it … Join us at  www.yinvestthinktank.blogspot.com

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage   Toronto / Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Develop/Manage/Syndication — Investments

Norair Yeretsian , broker of record

Email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]  November 5, 2010

Last Year Home Sales were Good, This Year Prices are Higher.

Last year home sales were good in Toronto, this year 2010 not so good in terms of volume but prices are higher !

According to TREB ( Toronto Real Estate Board) , we are down 21 per cent in a month to month comparison over last year,( existing home sales).

The board reported 6,681 sales last month, down from the 8,476 sales reported in October of 2009.

“The market has balanced out from record levels of sales in the second half of 2009 and first few months of 2010,”

 said TREB president Bill Johnston.

For the first 10 months of the year sales are up – but only just – by one per cent from the same time period in 2009.

The average price of a home was $443,729, up 5 per cent compared to the average of $423,559 reported last October.

In the city of Toronto selling prices were higher at $491,157.

In the rest of the GTA prices averaged $410,529.”

Prices higher but volume down, what’s the worry ?

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage         Toronto / Ontario
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndication — Investments

Norair Yeretsian, broker of record

Email :  capitalmoves@gmail.com

Blog :  www.capitalmoves.blogspot.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]  November 4, 2010

Lofts in Toronto, Styled Living. Norair Yeretsian

What a trend this form of housing seems to be, an inner city life style that has taken root.

It seems they are converting everything these days, nothing seems to be sacred or over looked.

Conversions of old factory buildings , old office buildings to historic church buildings.

Since the early 1990s City of Toronto seems to have”  gone conversion crazy” turning every manner
of historic building into modern living spaces.
( Post Newspaper November 2010, article; New Loft a religious experience )

A sample of the properties in Toronto that have become a Loft/Condo address ;

The Abbey Loft project, a century old church with neo-Gothic architecture in a central location.
The penthouse with 25 foot ceilings, 2500 square feet is asking $ 1.5 million Cdn.

In North Toronto , Yonge Street + Blythwood area , a Loft/Condo ; 2500 sf asking $ 1.695 million Cdn.

In Yorkville, Avenue Road + Bloor , a Loft/Condo : 3,000 sf asking price $2,295,000 Cdn. [$765psf approx]

In the Bayview + Lawrence area, a Condo :  3,000 sf asking price $2,250,000 [$750psf approx]

Top end of Toronto, a Condo : 3,000 sf asking price $ 2,200,000 Cdn.  [ $733psf approx]

There are many more; the Tip Top lofts, the Factory lofts, Glebe lofts –  to name but a few .

Fashionable, modern-living  within an urban area in historic buildings lofts/condos an alternative life style.

What’s the next trend you see coming in real estate ?

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage      Toronto / Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndication … Investments

Norair Yeretsian , broker of record

email ; capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]         November  3,2010

Let the Buying Begin … Norair Yeretsian

In August 2010 RioCan the largest REIT in Canada made a move to purchase interests in retail properties in the U.S. by spending approximately $107 million . ( Globe’s Report on Business Aug.17/2010)

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board ( CPP ) expanded its Mall portfolio by $ 335 million in September 2010.

The CPP’s worldwide real estate portfolio has an equity value of approximately $ 7.9 Billion . ( Toronto Star , Sept.21/2010 ) 

And today it announced another acquisition of a Mall this time in Germany.  

Meanwhile another big real estate player in Canada acquired an Office building in downtown Toronto .  The media piece on it says ;

” Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T12.91-0.09-0.69%) has stepped heavily into Toronto’s office market, investing $82.2-million to buy a 12-story building in the city’s financial district.

The building, at the corner of King St. and University Ave., is fully leased and was owned by a European family. It’s the insurer’s second big bet on real estate this year – in September it bought a 770,000-square-foot office complex in San Francisco.

Manulife Financial  (MFC-T)

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After a strong start to the year, commercial real estate investment activity slowed through the fall as sellers insisted on high prices and buyers held out for bargains. Manulife said it wants to build its real estate portfolio, and was attracted to Toronto because that’s where it’s headquartered.

“Manulife has a long-standing presence in Toronto and it’s a market we know well,” said Kevin Adolphe, chief operating officer of Manulife’s investment division.

“We are optimistic about the possibilities in Toronto and other key markets as we continue to look for core office and industrial property investments across Canada, the United States and Asia.”

The building was built-in 1959, but renovated in 1996.”

The Commercial real estate news seems to be good thus far in Canada and by Canadians purchasing in the U.S. and Europe.

The American commercial real estate portfolios it is suggested have some major re-financing issues on the horizon.

Going into an economic environment that is challenged with liquidity issues and lenders reining in on credit,credit lines and any borrowing. 

What do the Canadian players know the others don’t ?

Is this the right time to Buy retail ; Malls ?

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage       Toronto / Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndicate — Investments

Norair Yeretsian   , broker of record

email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]  November 2, 2010

Defects ; Patent and Latent, Know the Difference. Norair Yeretsian

 

The common law of contracts makes a distinction, between patent and latent defects.

What is a patent or latent defect ?

Patent defects are discoverable/observable by inspection and ordinary vigilance on the part of a buyer.

Latent defects are not revealed by any ordinary inquiry which a buyer is in a position to make before entering into a contract to purchase.

In a court decision [ Gesner v. Ernst , May 2007, Supreme Crt N.S. ] patent defects; the seller is not required to call attention to them: the rule here seem to be  CAVEAT EMPTOR applies . The buyer should inspect and inquiry – about what he is buying.
Alternatively – latent defects are those not readily apparent to the buyer. If latent defects are actively concealed by the seller, the rule of CAVEAT EMPTOR does not apply and the buyer can at his option ask for rescission of the contract and /or compensation for damages resulting from it.

CAVEAT EMPTOR , the maxim of  BUYER BEWARE !

In Ontario , Canada – under The Real Estate and Business Brokers Act (2002 ) [REBBA], this is the Act which licenses all realtors in the province.

It does NOT make the above Distinction.

REBBA(2002) Code ” requires the registrant ( broker and sales person ) to disclose all material facts to both clients and customers that are known or ought to be known by the registrant. While common law makes a distinction between latent and patent defects, the REBBA Code does not. ”

You as a realtor licensed and practicing in your jurisdiction must know how this may affect you and your practice of real estate. Know how your province or state interprets various significant aspects of contract law, common law and the ACT-Code that authorizes you to be a realtor .

Be the professional you want to be and your clients expect.

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage         Toronto / Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndicate — Investments

Norair Yeretsian  , broker of record

email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian  [ Facebook ]    November 2, 2010

Who Reads the Newspaper Anymore ? Norair Yeretsian

Who reads the newspaper anymore ?

If the newspaper is your only method of reaching out to the community you are dramatically limiting your audience.

What does your target market read or look at , daily, weekly , monthly ?

How will you capture their attention ?

Where can you get the most exposure to your product and services for your money ?

With an effective and hopefully positive result in increased activity and a positive  cashflow to your real estate business.

Flyers in the mailbox. Door knocking. Billboard advertising, bus stop bench advertising – all
the outdoor visual advertising you can think of , paint your car/van/truck with signage?

Does your product or service meet the need of  mass appeal . Do you care who buys your listing or hire you ?

Do you know the market you are in and or the market you are interested in capturing and nurturing over time ?

Email blasts ( also known as spam ) , websites , blogs, … Why ? You have to ask why ?

If you do it with purpose and are focused ,working on a specific target market / clientele the results are usually most positive. It is a building process and a learning process. You will learn to adjust your approach and as you do you will find what works for you and what does not. All approaches do not work for all of us. We are unique and have a variety of strengths, which we will discover as we try things and see what works !

We want meaningful impact, I mean qualified leads that translate into either; listings ( sellers) ,
buyers, landlords/tenants for leasing, properties to manage, to develop, investors to organize to buy
and hold larger and larger real estate.

What about the competition , should we care ?
The competition keeps us honest, on our toes and thinking + working.

With all the competition we have and face each day in real estate – it is confusing for the general public
as they watch us realtors doing all we do about town. Is the public over exposed to all the real estate
advertising that they are de-sensitized. Non-reactive to all we do to get in front of them.
We become the problem , them want to avoid – talking to us , signing our mandates/listings, etc.

How do we get meaningful results from the market place is a challenging quest.

” Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted. Problem is I don’t know which half . ” said Henry Ford ( Ford Motor Corporation,founder)

This maybe our problem – rationalizing the effective spending on advertising .
And not fully understanding or appreciating the audience who is receiving our message.

Should we just fire on all fronts; newspapers/website/local paper/blogs/outdoor ads/tv/radio/referral networks/one on one;breakfast/lunch/dinners, local organizations, etc…

At some point you will need to do a cost – benefit analysis and try to figure out the most effective.

Most bang for the buck !

If you have limited resources , little most of the world.
Then you must strategically plan out your advertising and not simply go full-out on all fronts
with lots of money and  teams of people.

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Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., brokerage                  Toronto / Canada
Buy/Sell/Lease/Manage/Develop/Syndicate — Investments

email : capitalmoves@gmail.com

Nor Yeretsian [ Facebook ]        November 1, 2010