Prayer Of The Procrastinator :Poem( October 1917) , Real Estate Time to Buy ?

This poem, a great little retrospective on the period’s mind set about
real estate and values, was printed in the
Farm and Land Realtor Magazine
( October ,1917).

Prayer of the Procrastinator

I hesitate to make a list
of all the countless deals I’ve missed;
Bonanzas that were in my grip–
I watched through my finger slip
The windfalls which I should have
Bought
Were lost because I over thought;
I thought of this, I thought of that
I could have sworn I smelled a rat,
and while I thought things over twice
another grabbed them at the price;
It seems I always hesitate
then make up my mind much too late.
A very cautious man am I
and that is why I never buy .

How Nassau and how Suffolk grew;
North Jersey! Statton Island too!
When others called those sprawling farms
and welcomed deals with open arms;
A corner here, ten acres there,
compounding values year by year,
I chose to think and as I thought
they bought the deals I should have
Bought
The golden chances I had then
are lost and will not come again
Today I cannot be enticed
for everything’s so overpriced
The deals of yesteryear are dead
the market’s soft– and so’s my head.
Last night I had a fearful dream
I know I wakened with a scream’
Some Indians approached my bed–
for trinkets on the barrelhead
( in dollars bills worth twenty-four
and nothing less and nothing more )
They’d sell Manhattan Isle to me,
the most I’d go was twenty-three
The redman scowled: ” Not on a Bet!”
and sold to Peter Minuit.
At times a teardrop drowns my eye
for deals I had , but did not buy;
And now life’s saddest words I pen,—

” IF ONLY I’D INVESTED THEN !”

Let’s talk about it on / @ twitter : EnvoyCapRealty or below
leave a comment or two …

Envoy Capitol Realty Inc., Brokerage   Toronto , Canada

http://www.envoycapitol.com

capitalmoves@gmail.com     May 26, 2010    

Check out or Books in print and for your E-reader Kindle or iPad with the free Kindle App…

Final Front Cover (July 17)   41zLCM3GlAL._AA278_PIkin4,BottomRight,-31,22_AA300_SH20_OU01_      or get them delivered to you from Books on Business visit their website…

http://www.booksforbusiness.com or simply click on the link below to take you there…

Great luck with all your real estate investing!

What is it worth ? Norair Yeretsian

” Art is a lie that makes us realize the truth .” — Pablo Picasso

What is it worth ? We keep asking the worth, about everything around us.

Well according to some U.K. realtors when asked , they  estimated –

that Stonehenge if available for sale, would be worth —  $ 75 million ,

$600 million for Windsor Castle and

# 10 Downing Street ( Prime Minister’s residence ) about  $ 8 million .

Pablo Picasso’s Garcon a La pipe ( Boy with a Pipe) ( 1905) Rose period

attracted the highest price at an Art auction of $ 104.2 million and his

other painting of  his former mistress’s Portait Dora Maar au Chat (1941)

brought in the second highest price near $ 90 million. A new high price was

paid at public auction recently according to Sotheby’s, for a cast bronze Sculpture

by Alberto Giacometti  ( L’Homme qui marche I ; Walking Man I ) at  $104.3 million

holds the world record.

Bidding started at $ 19 million and was all over within 8 minutes for the record price.

How do you price these things ? Or is it just emotions running wild?

How do you price an NHL team? Well according to Forbes magazine

The Carolina Hurricanes would be worth about $177 million .

The Phoenix Coyotes, a team that Forbes say is worth $ 138 million .

Forbes national editor– Michael Ozanian said ” Despite playing in

a great building ( RBC Center), I believe he will only get about $ 85 million

for half the club. The folks in North Carolina really don’t care about hockey. ”

And that could be the real difference , you need desire/ passion/ emotion —

demand for that limited , one of a kind item/ product / talent / property .

What is it worth ?

As much as someone is willing and able to pay for it.

Worth ( Value) ” is a lie that makes us realize the truth. (2010)

Let’s discuss in on twitter @ EnvoyCapRealty

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 26, 2010

Monopoly: Essential Board Game! Norair Yeretsian

Before every game say the following : I can defend myself from
my opponent, but who will defend me from myself ?”
Tom Wiswell

In The Education of a Speculator , Victor Niederhoffer
shares his experiences with Board games that were essential in his life
( checkers was his favorite) and in the lifes of many great traders/
speculators/investors as they prepared  themselves and their minds
for their future profession and businesses.
Niederhoffer took lessons for 15 years at his office weekly  from a
world champion (champion for 25 years and author of 17 books) ; Tom Wiswell .

George Soros played chess with his father , while hiding from
the Gestapo, for cookies. After his father had won and eaten all the cookies,
” they turned their attention to Monopoly. The vicarious pleasure of  building
and renting, combining and selling for millions was as close as anyone could
get  to the real thing those days.” (1944 , in Hungary ) .
He continued his chess playing in the U.S. . Helped keep the mind sharp .

T.H. Huxley provided a famous quote connecting board games and life :

” The chess board is the world, the pieces are the phenomena of the universe,
the rules of the game are what we call the laws of  Nature. The player on the
other side is hidden from us. We know that his play is always fair,just and
patient. But also we know, to our cost, that he never overlooks a mistake or
makes the smallest allowance for ignorance. ”

Niederhoffer describes Warren Buffett as one of the world’s most
famous speculators ,” personifies Mr. Market as the omniscient
player-opponent in an almost identical fashion.
Sometimes, Mr. Market will buy your goods at Walmart prices.
On other occasions, he will buy from you at Tiffany retail.
The question is :Can you take advantage of his dispositions ? ”

Niederhoffer then explores the wisdom of  Tom Wiswell ( Let’s Play Checkers)
and provides a framework to deliver it  :

Rules of  the Game

” The easiest thing in the world is to learn the checkers moves;
the hardest thing is to learn to play them  correctly.

” To lose is human, to win is divine, to draw is an art. ”

Before the Game

“It isn’t only what you know that counts, its also what you don’t know; and don’t know that you don’t know.”

“The student playing much, suffering much and studying much: these are the three pillars of learning.”

“You may not have  as much knowledge as your opponent, but you do have as much imagination–use it !”

During the Game

” Exercise judgement, exercise caution, exercise patience; and , finally, exercise. ”

“Indecision is fatal. It is better to make a wrong decision than build up a habit of indecision. ”

“Never let the fear of  striking out get in your way.”

Deception

“No matter how bad your position is , never let your opponent see you sweat.”

“The best trap is the trap your opponent does not see.”

” It is always wise to remember that your opponent may be
as Machiavellian and scheming as you are. ”

” When your opponent allows you to make a very inviting move,
remember the story of the spider and the fly.”

After the Game

“You may make a move without knowing why,
but after you’ve lost the game the reason will be apparent.”

” A good scare may eventually help you to make a good score.”

“After suffering a disastrous defeat, listen to some good music.”

” A beautiful game is in the eye of the beholder; and that is usually the winner;
but a brilliancy is a game that can be admired by the loser, as well as the winner. ”

Niederhoffer says ” If only speculators would spend one-tenth the time analyzing
a completed trade that they spend implementing it,they would have a lot fewer losses. ”

Character of a Winner

” Only those with passion can become masters.”

” Success does not come all at once; even for masters it comes in stages, separated by years.”

” You are the architect of your own victories and defeats .”

” In order to win, you should analyze the play, you need to analyze the player
and you must,above all, analyze yourself. ”

” Those players who do not learn from experience, will not learn at any other school.”

” The good player is the one who knows he will always have a lot to learn. ”

Samples of  Tom Wiswell’s proverbs were used to fill in and complete this framework.

The skills that you + your children can develop by game playing are the excellent skills
required in professional investing/trading and speculating.
The strategic thinking on many levels , the timely and possibility thinking as you look
at  options/moves and the changes that happen with every turn. And then you must  act !

Yet another good reason to go back to the game box for : checkers, chess and monopoly,  and
play with your kids ( beyond the obvious reasons to be with your children).
It will help their development and your development.

Game on !

Let continue the discussion @ twitter : EnvoyCapRealty … or send a comment back below

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 17, 2010

Deep Economy : Do things Locally ! Norair Yeretsian

The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future :
Deep Economy by Bill McKibben is a book about location,location ,location !
You and I have the best location, to do all the things we want.
In Deep Economy, Bill McKibben explores our current state and problems and
suggests we can do better by doing it within reach/locally.
And thereby build a stronger and healthier economy by building many
micro local economies. Because we now have challenges everywhere and
it weakens the whole economy, example our food :

” Even apart from terrorists, the centralized food  system we’ve built presents risks.
The industrialization of poultry is the nub of the problem ‘ of avian flu ‘ says
Kennedy Shortridge, a Hong Kong microbiologist who has spent three decades
studying influenza viruses. Concentrated agriculture also manages to make us
sick on a fairly regular , if less dramatic, basis. Seventy-six million American
fall ill annually from food-borne illness; 300,000 are hospitalized, 5000 die.
Salmonella is the biggest culprit, and its prevalence has doubled since the 1070s,
which makes sense when you consider the enormous poultry barns and cattle
feedlots that grew up in those years.”

We may need to go smaller , faster.
Detroit , Michigan is planning on destroying many urban vacant homes
and creating farm land : Urban farms.
City councils in Toronto and London , Ontario have been debating whether
to allow residential properties the permitted use of : raising chicken, and
possibly other farm animals in their backyards ?
There is a minor movement to getting vegetable gardens growing on Hydro fields.

We could grow more of our food locally and become healthier in the process.
You and I have the best location : Ontario, Canada to do all that we want.
Geographically well located, and with a nice seasonality to grow and raise wonderfully.

Challenges exist and they must be addressed. Environmental issues of the lands is
another concern, testing must be done first prior to growing things on these properties.
And someone needs to establish healthy standards for the soil conditions for that the
results are beneficial for all.

Land and the quality of our land is very important for our health and well being.
When you buy and sell property there is a responsibility to care and protect the
future uses of these properties. Due diligence is important in this area to satisfy
all concerned that the properties are safe and clean ; environmentally.

Adam Smith (1776) in The Wealth of  Nations that ” it is not the actual greatness
of national wealth, but its continued increase” which raises wages.
Benjamin Friedman in The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth
provides a modified perspective on this increase. How modern commerce was
thought to be a one time event — that they would soon hit a plateau.
The new economic revolution showed that businessess could keep improving
their operations, apparently indefinitely.

” By the early twentieth century, increasing efficiency had become very nearly
a religion, especially in the U.S., where stopwatch-wielding experts like
Frederick Taylor broke every task into its smaller parts, wiping out inefficiencies
with all the zeal of a pastor hunting sins, and with far more success. ”
writes Bill McKibben ( Deep Economy ,2007; Times Books)

Is it time to re-think, re-set and get back to the Garden of Eden ?

Let’s discuss it :  Twitter @ EnvoyCapRealty  or just below …

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 16, 2010

17 % Less Realty Tax !!! Norair Yeretsian

The Town of Strathroy has no Debt and it reduced the property tax
( town portion) by 17% (2008) .  Amazing !

Unbelievable . This is outstanding !

All Cities and towns in Ontario should learn from Strathroy .

What a model of how to run a municipal (local)  government .

Great leadership by  local officials , who responsibly tax and
spend in a caring manner.

So it can happen, taxes can go down !

Town of Strathroy, Ontario is a well run community according to
Mr. John Grogan (Re/max Centre City Realty Inc.) a sales
representative (www.johngrogan.ca) :

” everything is going well in Strathroy .

Industry ( mostly automotive) is working and things are busy”

Yes its a small town, but its run very well. It just built a new
two ice pad Arena and purchased a new Fire truck ($150,000)
without any Debt.

You have to be proud of your local leadership when they manage
your Town and your tax dollars in such a responsible manner !

Its time to consider a drive out to Strathroy, Ontario
to check out the real estate  opportunities there !

Let’s continue the discussion on Twitter : EnvoyCapRealty

nyeretsian@yahoo.com         May 13 , 2010

The Age of Turbulence by Alan Greenspan , Nor Yeretsian

Sir Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,
the overlord of the financial markets from 1987 to 2006 a challenging time.
Authored a book (2007) : The Age of Turbulence about the tuff financial period(s).

I guess these interest times have not ended, or rather we are in a
new era of interesting timeswhere we will live from crisis to
crisis both locally ( America) and the
globe (the rest of the world plus America ).

Mr. Greenspan write the current economic history of America in a
smooth and determined manner, and brings a clarity to the period(s).

You will start to understand the financial cycles and why the bank(s)
and the banker(s) treat you the way they do and how and why they  lend you what they do .

The book is worth your effort to read the 505 pages, it will leave you with
a much better understand of the recent passed and how we got here.

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 11, 2010

The Rise of the Creative Class by Richard Florida , Norair Yeretsian

The Rise of the Creative Class and how its transforming work, leisure,
community and everyday life (2002) by Professor Richard Florida,
now at the Rotman School of Management at the University of  Toronto,
was a National Bestselling book that needs to be read by all our
City Councillors and planners. His latest book , The Great Reset
appears to deliver great wisdom and foresight to future City development
and planning. Although as most of us know it should be planning and
then development not wait for an application, then public forum fighting
and grand standing ( political career made and destroyed) and then
compromised negotiation where no one gets all they want
( no body happy — but good enough attitude, just move on).

The Harvard Business Review (May 2010) (Andy O’Connell)
book review’s comments on
The Great Reset by Richard Florida (HarperCollins,2010)

” We humans are good at making cities bigger, but we’re lousy at making them
smaller. When an urban area loses population and business
–as New Orleans did after Katrina — homes,office buildings,retail
space just sit there and rot : Very rarely does the bulldozer
put them out of their misery. The difficulty of shrinking is one of the
obstacles facing cities in the wake of the most recent ” great reset,”
the author’s term for the global economic downturn.”

Professor Florida argues that elected officials
” need to get over their love affair with big renewal projects”
and move money towards neighborhood projects/developments
which will do better at improving people’s lives.
” Government, won’t be the prime mover in the future years; its
role is merely to enable and accelerate society’s development of an
idea-driven economy ‘, in which every person’s creativity is valued
and individuals shed the burdensome possessions that have been
dragging them down for years. ”

The great desire going forward is a new City council which will have
the wisdom and strength of  leadership with a positive determination
to use all our resources in a meaningful and efficient way to create a
City for all that encourages enterprise ,innovation and future
developments,among its creative citizens.

With a positive view We can do better ! We can do more.

We can do this without the easy — let’s just tax them and build it.
The reallocation of resources and review process, with trimming and
pruning services / taxes is all a part of having a healthy garden and environment .

No sacred cows .
It’s evolution and not revolution to getting to our better and possibly our best place.
A great City that works on all levels efficiently and without over taxing its residents
because professionals who care about each dollar they get, spend it carefully and responsibly !

Let’s continue the discussion on  www.  Twitter :  EnvoyCapRealty

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 10, 2010

Bust/Boom/BoomBoom Update (May) N. Yeretsian

During today’s meeting of 30 real estate professionals mostly from the GTA west region,
they were asked the Survey question of were in their opinion the GTA real estate values
will be in twenty four months– May 2012 .

Survey headings and results of  the individual votes :

Bust     Boom     Boom Boom

…6            21                  3

In the discussion that followed, a number of points were raised as indicators of concern

or optimism.

Concerns : reasons for concern …
rising interest rates ,
— over leveraged consumers ,
— possible over building causing over supply
— rising unemployment ,
— affordability issues of housing ,
— the globe economy and the need to pull money out of  Toronto ,
— money is tight ,
— its time things go down, they have been up for so long…

Optimism :reasons for optimism
interest rates are still low ( even if they double)
— US is now coming out of recession
— Presidential election years are usually UP!
— Lots of good demand for the supply
— Our banks are conservative, our economy stable
— our political environment is stable

— The big one is Immigration : people with money are coming here from
all over the world for a good stable, safe place to put their money.
They are investing here and building here. Whenever and Where
ever there is a problem in the world , Toronto wins .
We get the smartest,wealthest citizens of the world coming here.

The population is projected to double here in the next 15 years. Wow !

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 5, 2010

What they don’t teach you in Class. Part 1 : by Norair Yeretsian

Let’s start a dialogue about the things they don’t teach you in Class, and I mean any Class.

Politics / Market psychology / Big City deal making /etc …

Like the real politics behind local government ( municipal / civic ) , in matters of
official plans / zoning-bylaws : permitted uses.

And the direct impact on valuation of that real property.

Is it really about good planning, when a decision it made ?
Is it really what the community wants as interpreted by the city councillors ?
Are there battles being fought behind the scenes that the general public
is completely unaware of ?

Where do you learn ; how the really big city deals are made?

How Ted Rogers negotiated real estate deals and determined values of the assets acquired ?

The Brilliant acquisitions of  # 1 Mount Pleasant in Toronto for about one third the cost of construction.
Followed by the Sky Dome in downtown Toronto and the Nortel headquarters in Brampton .
All great trademark Rogers deals!

How do you do it ?

Yes we have a lot of questions. However that ‘s a great place to start with Questions.

Add to the list , send us your comments. These will become nice topics for future discussion points.

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 4, 2010

Urban planning Guru and the Prosperity of our Cities Norair Yeretsian

With an authoritative voice and finger pointing at the City councillors
and the planning staff, she told them they were destroying this beautiful City !

I judged this book by the narrow sound bite I just heard on my TV and
thought here is yet another ‘ nut job ‘ telling my City’s leader what they
are doing wrong and how to right it . So I tuned her out and did not read her books.

How wrong I was back then , when I could have both read her and meet with her.

That Lady was Jane Jacobs, brilliant writer and promoter of a simple intelligence
that we have been missing in our urban planning process ever since.

Back then we seemed to have left the human element by the road side as
we planned and built our cities around the automobile/transportation.

Then as progressive city councils and planner went through City Hall,
read her book and planned forward seem to have missed her point(s).

They have gone to the other extreme , where they have purposefully made it
inconvenient for anyone with a vehicle to move anywhere in our City.
Thus creating a great frustration with traffic congestions and great amounts
of  pollution ( with its negative health consequences) and great economic loss
with all that productive human talent sitting in vehicles whether public or private,
going nowhere fast and spending a live time doing it.
The result the great stress among the citizens and that has  ended up
hurting the very people they think they are helping.

No one is happy with the mess and our quality of life suffers greatly and families suffer.

Read Jane Jacobs ‘ books again and appreciate what they really say about ;
our Cities  and our lives in our Cities. The development process and planning ,
official plans and zoning-by that work to make our lives better and our business
can operate without the threat of prosecution .
Understand how your citizens really live and work , and then work to accommodate them.
It has to work well with the citizens in mind first and foremost  , not just look pretty on paper.

Humanize it !

Don’t make it a sterile environment where everything is so organized that the human community is lost.

Read Jane Jacobs’ books and be enriched  :

The Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961)

The Economy of Cities

Cities and the Wealth of Nations ; Principles of Economic Life (1984)

Dark Age Ahead (2004)

nyeretsian@yahoo.com May 3 , 2010